AI Safety Watch

REPORTING ON AI RISK, SECURITY AND GOVERNANCE


The case for measuring how much AI actually increases harmful capability

Researchers argue that safety tests should ask how much more dangerous a person becomes with AI, not merely what a model can do in isolation.


Many frontier-model evaluations ask whether an AI can complete a dangerous task. A group of researchers argues that the more useful question is comparative: How much better can a person perform that task with AI than without it?

A framework proposed by researchers including Michelle Vaccaro and Michiel Bakker calls this “harmful capability uplift.” It would measure the marginal increase in a user’s ability to cause harm when assisted by a frontier model compared with conventional tools.

The distinction matters for policy. A model might score highly on a biological or cyber benchmark while adding little to what a skilled specialist could already do. Conversely, a system that turns a novice into an effective attacker could create substantial real-world risk even if its absolute benchmark performance appears less dramatic.

Human-centered evaluations are harder and more expensive than static benchmarks. They may also be closer to the question regulators ultimately care about: not what knowledge exists inside a model, but how much additional dangerous capability deployment puts into the world.